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Conditions at Vairao in May
May: The Cold-Swell Machine Turns on, But Not for Vairao
By May, the South Pacific's winter storm track is actively firing. Average surf heights reach 7ft (2.2m) and periods touch 12.9s-some of the largest, most powerful lines of the year. Yet the rose is heavily weighted toward S (26.8%), SSE (22.5%) and SSW (13.9%), with SE back at 10.1%. The preferred SW-WNW window contributes only 2.4%, so most of that energy is pushing straight into the island's southern exposure rather than wrapping cleanly around onto Vairao's west-facing reef.
Wind quality drops slightly to 33% ideal, as the trade winds begin to gust harder out of E and ESE. Water temperatures cool to 27.9°C, air temps dip to 26.4°C, and precipitation drops to 3.32mm/day-a sign of the approaching dry season. For the patient surfer, May can still deliver if an SSW or SW groundswell sneaks in, but the trend is toward bigger and less favourable surf.
Average Spot conditions at Vairao in May
Swell history for May
Wind history for May
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Vairao during May. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Vairao for your next trip in May.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Vairao for May. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Vairao.