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Conditions at Pennington Bay in October
October: Spring Transition Tension
October is the shoulder month where late winter's swell collides with spring's fickle winds. Average surf still runs 1.8m (5.9ft) at 11.8s, so the Southern Ocean hasn't shut off yet. Swell direction favours SW at 37% and SSW at 30%, with S contributing 8%; there is genuine size to be found. But ideal wind drops to 18%, and the SE/SSE/S onshore sector grows to around 33% as the summer seabreeze pattern begins to re-establish itself after fronts. The winds become a daily fight between spring westerlies and a developing sea breeze.
This month rewards early starts and flexible planning. When the wind does go NW or NNW, often following a cold front, the bay can quickly turn on with clean, powerful lines. Water temperature is 15.3°C, air averages 14.6°C, and rainfall drops to 1.07mm/day. It's a transitional month, but not a write-off.
Average Spot conditions at Pennington Bay in October
Swell history for October
Wind history for October
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Pennington Bay during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Pennington Bay for your next trip in October.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Pennington Bay for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Pennington Bay.