Cayo Coco • Statistics for October

October: The Transition Back Toward Winter

October brings the first meaningful signs of life to Cayo Coco after the summer doldrums. The average swell height is still modest at 2.0ft (0.6m) and the period is 3.1s, but the directional mix begins to shift. E swell drops to around 27% of the spectrum, ENE swell becomes the single largest direction at 34%, and the optimal N/NNW/NW quadrant grows to about 5%. More importantly, the trade-wind intensity starts to ease, and the chance of S/SSW/SW offshore flow behind early cold fronts slowly increases. Wind data show ENE and E still dominate at about 49%, but there is a broader distribution through SE and S directions than in summer. The surf is still mostly short-period windswell, so expectations should remain low; however, October is the beginning of the autumn transition when the North Atlantic storm track begins to reach farther south and the first true NW swells of the season can appear. Air temperatures are warm at 27.8°C, water 28.6°C, and average rainfall is 3.46mm/day.