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Conditions at Troncones in October
October: Transition Time as Winds Turn Cleaner
October is the swing month when Troncones starts to trade late-summer chaos for cleaner autumn conditions. Average swell height drops only slightly to 1.5m (5ft) and the period is a strong 13.4s. The direction mix is still beautifully concentrated in the sweet spot: SSW 72.7% and SW 15.4%, with the biggest chunk in the 1-1.5m (3-5ft) range (45.9%) and another 23.6% in the 1.5-2m (5-6.5ft) category. Those are ideal, rippable groundswell conditions.
More importantly, the wind pattern starts to shift back toward offshore stability. Ideal winds rise to 42%, with N/NNE/NE/ENE frequencies all increasing while S/SW winds slowly fade. Rain drops to 3.35 mm/day and water temp relents slightly to 29.8°C. October can be fantastic if the tail end of the tropical swell season meets an early autumn high-pressure system bringing north winds. You get the late-season size and the winter-like clean surface - a sneaky good month for Troncones.
Average Spot conditions at Troncones in October
Swell history for October
Wind history for October
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Troncones during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Troncones for your next trip in October.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Troncones for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Troncones.