Sero Beach • Statistics for October

October: Transition Begins, Wind Still Holds the Key

October is the hinge month. Average swell height drops to 1.1m (3.6ft), and the average period falls to 6.8s, the year's lowest. The swell direction is still stubbornly SSE-80.5 percent-with 31.7 percent in the 1-1.5m (3.3-4.9ft) class and 10.8 percent in the 1.5-2m (4.9-6.6ft) range. SE adds another 18.7 percent, so the raw energy is still present, but the declining period means it is getting lumpier and less organized on the face.

The wind, however, is beginning to shift. Ideal conditions climb to 5 percent, with more light NNW and NW observations appearing, but SE wind still leads at 43.9 percent alongside SSE at 21.1 percent. For every promising offshore window, there are still many more days of onshore trade flow. Rainfall remains low at 1.31mm/day, air temps warm to 26.5°C, and water temp rises to 25.9°C. Watch the synoptic charts closely: October can suddenly deliver a clean day as the monsoon trough begins to creep south, but those windows are still rare.