Horseshoe • Statistics for January

January: Peak Amihan Power

January is the heart of the northeast monsoon and the most powerful surf month on the calendar at Horseshoe. Average swell height sits at a chunky 5-6ft (1.7m), and the swell window is almost entirely locked into the NE/ENE quadrant, with NE pushing 57.4% of observations and ENE adding another 30.4%. The bulk of that energy falls between 3-7ft (1-2m) and, better yet, the average period is a solid 9.5s, giving the waves enough push to make the east-facing bank pitch when the wind lines up.

Wind is the limiting factor. ENE/NE breezes dominate - ENE 28.9%, NE 26.2%, and E 14.0% - which is exactly the onshore/cross-onshore direction that puts lumps on Horseshoe. Only 3% of the time is the wind truly ideal from the west or northwest. That means the spot is likely to be more of a heavy, bumpy closeout than a clean reel. Still, when a high-pressure surge slips southeast or a local land breeze kicks in, the clean windows can be electric. Air temps hover around 27°C with 16.3mm/day of rain and a warm 27.7°C water temp, so all you need is the wind to cooperate.