Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Chacahua seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (May - September)

As the North Pacific high-pressure system strengthens and the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts north, Chacahua comes alive. The southern hemisphere's winter storm track pumps consistent, long-period groundswells from the S and SSW directly into our SSW-facing beach. With average wave heights hovering around 1.6m and periods stretching well into the 13-14 second range, the surf is consistently in the fun to pumping category. The real kicker? Offshore winds from the N, NNE, and NE are frequent, with ideal wind percentages climbing to 53-65%. This is prime time – expect clean, lined-up sets perfect for firing lefts and rights. The occasional tropical disturbance can add an extra boost, keeping the energy high throughout these months.

Fair Surf Season (April, October, November)

These transitional months offer a mixed bag but plenty of hidden gems. April sees the swell direction shifting from winter's ENE-E patterns to the more favorable S and SSW, with the average height reaching 1.5m and periods of 14.0s – some of the longest of the year. However, the wind is more fickle, with only 31% ideal in April, often plagued by afternoon onshores from the WSW and W. October and November offer a similar story: solid swell (1.3-1.5m, 12.7-13.3s) and improving wind consistency (57-62% ideal). These months are a surfer's gamble – when the offshore wind aligns with a strong S swell, the waves can be world-class. Be patient and pick your windows.

Low Surf Season (December - March)

Winter months bring a different character to Chacahua. The dominant swell shifts to easterly quadrants (ENE, E, ESE) as strong cold fronts and high-latitude storms track further north. While these swells can wrap in, they're often smaller (averaging 1.2-1.4m) and less consistent, with periods in the 11-13s range. The wind still blows favorably from the N and NW about 38-59% of the time, but the swell quality takes a hit. Expect more small, fun-sized days with occasional punchy sets from a long-period S pulse. It's not a write-off – dawn patrol can still deliver glassy conditions – but the energy is noticeably lower. This is the time for groveling and working on your cutbacks, not chasing bombs.

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Conditions at Chacahua in October

October: Autumn's Sweet Spot

October averages 1.5m height and 13.3s period, with a swell direction profile similar to summer: S (23.1%), SSW (57.2%), and SW (8.3%). The wind turns more favorable again, with ideal at 57%. Offshore winds from N (9.5%), NNE (5.9%), and NW (11.8%) dominate the light wind spectrum. Onshore components are weaker than September – WSW (6.1%), W (8.2%), and WNW (10.5%) are present but often light. This creates a reliably clean surf environment for much of the day. The swell is still packed with power, and the crowds thin out. October is a gem: solid, firing waves with fewer people and warm water.

Average Spot conditions at Chacahua in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Chacahua during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Chacahua for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Chacahua for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Chacahua.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size