Shoals Point - surf spot statistics

The best months for surfing at Shoals Point, United States, are typically from late autumn through early spring, with the peak season falling between October and March. During this period, the spot benefits from consistent ground swell activity, with ground swell probabilities ranging from 46% in October to 73% in January and 71% in December. Mean swell sizes are also most favorable, averaging 0.9m to 1.0m from October through February, providing solid, rideable waves. However, wind conditions are often challenging, with bad winds (onshore or unfavorable directions) dominating 85-89% of the time. The best compromise between swell and wind occurs in September, when ground swell is decent (28%), wind swell plays a bigger role (35%), and good wind conditions are slightly more likely (15%). Summer months (May to August) are generally poor, with weak swells (0.5m-0.6m) and high no-swell probabilities (50-67%), making them the least reliable for surf. If you're willing to tolerate less-than-ideal winds, target the winter months for the best wave quality, but keep an eye on wind forecasts for rare clean days. September offers a more balanced mix but with smaller swells compared to winter.

November at Shoals Point offers fairly consistent surf conditions, though with some variability in size and quality. The average swell height is 0.9m with a solid period of 11.6s, indicating decent energy and potentially clean, well-spaced waves. The dominant swell directions are SW and WSW, which account for the majority of waves in the 0.5-2.5m range, making them the most productive for surfable conditions. Larger swells (1.5m+) primarily come from the S and SW, though they are less frequent. Wind conditions are often a limiting factor—only 11% of the time is the wind ideal for surfing (likely offshore or light cross-shore). Winds from the NE to ESE are the most common, frequently blowing in the 10-30kph range, which can create choppy or less favorable onshore conditions. However, with the right swell direction (SW/WSW) and a rare light or offshore wind day, this spot can offer quality sessions, particularly when the swell pushes into the 1-2m range. Patience and timing are key, as the best windows for clean, ridable waves are somewhat limited.