Shoals Point - surf spot statistics

The best months for surfing at Shoals Point, United States, are typically from late autumn through early spring, with the peak season falling between October and March. During this period, the spot benefits from consistent ground swell activity, with ground swell probabilities ranging from 46% in October to 73% in January and 71% in December. Mean swell sizes are also most favorable, averaging 0.9m to 1.0m from October through February, providing solid, rideable waves. However, wind conditions are often challenging, with bad winds (onshore or unfavorable directions) dominating 85-89% of the time. The best compromise between swell and wind occurs in September, when ground swell is decent (28%), wind swell plays a bigger role (35%), and good wind conditions are slightly more likely (15%). Summer months (May to August) are generally poor, with weak swells (0.5m-0.6m) and high no-swell probabilities (50-67%), making them the least reliable for surf. If you're willing to tolerate less-than-ideal winds, target the winter months for the best wave quality, but keep an eye on wind forecasts for rare clean days. September offers a more balanced mix but with smaller swells compared to winter.

October at Shoals Point offers a mix of surfable conditions, though consistency and ideal wind setups are somewhat limited. The average swell height is 0.9m with a decent period of 74.0s, suggesting generally clean, organized waves when swells arrive. The dominant swell directions are SW and WSW, contributing over half the waves (mostly in the 0.5-1.5m range), while S and SSE swells bring the larger sets (1.5-2.5m). However, smaller swells (0-0.5m) are prevalent, particularly from SW, which could mean occasional flat spells. Wind conditions are critical here—only 13% of the time is the wind ideal for surfing, with onshore SE-SSW winds being most common at 10-30kph, often creating chop. Cleaner conditions are more likely with light NNE-NE or W-NW winds, though these are less frequent. For experienced surfers, the best windows are likely during S/SSE swells paired with lighter winds, offering punchier, head-high+ waves. Patience and timing will be key, as the spot relies on specific swell/wind alignments to really turn on.