Shoals Point - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (March - May & September - October)

At Shoals Point, the surf calendar is a balancing act between size and cleanness. The best windows come during spring and fall when the North Atlantic still pumps out decent groundswells, but the wind regime shifts favorably. In March and April, average swell heights hover around 2.2-2.4m with solid periods (10-11s), and offshore flow from the NW quadrant becomes more frequent (20-26% ideal wind). May follows with cleaner conditions (36% ideal) but smaller averages (1.7m), often providing fun, rippable waves. September and October are the fall peak: September boasts 31% ideal wind and 1.9m of punchy swell, while October kicks up to 2.5m. The dominant swell direction is from the SW and WSW, which, while not directly optimal for this SE-facing beach, still wraps in with enough energy to create rideable walls, especially when a stiff NW breeze grooms the faces. Keep an eye on the NAO – a negative phase can steer more nor'easters your way, delivering rare but epic E/SE swells that truly light up the point.

Fair Surf Season (November - February)

Winter roars in with the biggest swells of the year – November averages 2.8m, December 3.0m, January 2.9m, and February 2.7m, all with long periods (11-12s). This is prime groundswell territory, but the trade-off is persistent onshore wind. The dominant wind direction shifts to E/SE (40%+ of the time), blowing straight into the beach and turning those powerful lines into choppy, blown-out messes. Ideal offshore wind drops to just 14-18%. Still, there are windows. When a deep low pressure system tracks north and a cold front sweeps through, expect a brief pulse of WNW to NW wind that can clean up the swell for a few hours. These are the sessions to watch – heavy, pumping waves (1.5-2.5m+), but you need to be ready to drop everything. February offers a slight uptick in offshore frequency (18%) and more N/NNE swell, which can wrap in from the corner.

Low Surf Season (June - August)

Summer at Shoals Point is all about consistency of conditions, not size. The swell drops to an average of 1.3-1.4m with periods around 10s, meaning predominantly small, groveling waves. However, the wind pattern is the best of the year: ideal offshore flow from the NW and WNW dominates (43-46% of the time), resulting in countless clean, glassy mornings. The main swell source is the SW quadrant, which produces weak, long-period background swell. While you won't find any overhead barrels, the fun-sized 0.5-1.5m waves are perfect for longboards, fish, or a cheeky summer quad. Hurricane swells from the SE/SSE are the wildcard – rare but capable of bringing 1.5-2m bombs with clean offshore winds. Overall, summer is a low-surf season in terms of power, but high in surfable days if you're happy to ride small waves.

November: Big Waves, Blown Out

November delivers the second-highest average swell of the year at 2.8m with a period of 11.0s. Swell from WSW (13.3%) and SW (11.6%) leads, with significant contributions from SSW (7.9%) and S (4.1%). The wind is predominantly onshore: ideal offshore occurs only 15% of the time. The dominant wind directions are ESE (11.7%), SE (11.7%), and SSE (10.1), with many days seeing 20-40kph winds. This creates a lot of messy, choppy surf. Still, the swell is powerful and long-period, so when the wind does shift to NW or W, the waves can be epic – heavy, hollow, and in the 2-3m range. These windows are short and often associated with the passage of a deep low pressure system. November is a month for dedicated surfers who are willing to watch the forecast and jump on the rare clean days. The good news is that the swell is almost always there, so you just need the right wind.