Surf forecastStatisticsHistorical report

Stoney Beach seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (June - August)

The Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean fire up during the Southern Hemisphere winter, delivering the most consistent and powerful swell of the year to Stoney Beach. Average wave heights climb to 1.3m with periods often pushing into the 10-11 second range, putting the spot in the 'punchy, rideable' to 'powerful, long period' sweet spot. More importantly, the frequency of offshore winds from the south through west-southwest reaches its annual peak, with ideal conditions blowing 31-36% of the time. This means many of those juicy ENE groundswells will be groomed clean by a crisp offshore breeze, creating the kind of lined-up, rippable waves that make the long drive worth it. The combination of increased swell energy and favorable wind aligns to produce the most reliable surf of the year.

Fair Surf Season (March - May & September - November)

As the seasons transition, the surf at Stoney Beach becomes a bit more of a mixed bag. During autumn (March-May), you’ll still see solid swell from the east-northeast sector, with average heights around 1.2m and periods lengthening into the 10-second range. The wind also begins to seasonally back off from its winter peak, with ideal conditions occurring 24-32% of the time. Spring (September-November) sees a similar pattern, though the average period dips a bit as we exit winter. In both shoulder seasons, the window of opportunity often comes from strong high-pressure systems drifting across the Tasman, which can generate those glassy mornings with a clean groundswell. However, periods of onshore northeasterlies are still common, so patience and careful forecast monitoring are key to scoring good waves.

Low Surf Season (December - February)

The height of the Kiwi summer is the most challenging time for consistent surf at Stoney Beach. Average swell heights drop to 1.1m and periods shorten to the 8.5-9.1 second range, meaning a lot of the energy will be weaker and more wind-affected. Crucially, the percentage of ideal offshore winds hits its annual low at 23-24%. The prevailing northeasterly sea breeze kicks in almost daily, putting a chop on the waves and ruining the shape. While there can be brief windows of clean conditions when a southerly change pushes through, these are often short-lived. This is the season for groveling on small, weak days and accepting that wave quality is typically poor. The only saving grace is the warmer air and water temps, which make a bad day at the beach a little easier to swallow.

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Conditions at Stoney Beach in September

September: Exit Winter, Enter Spring Transition

September marks a noticeable shift. The average swell height dips back to 1.2m and the period falls to 9.9 seconds, signaling the waning of the deep winter swell train. The swell direction still favors ENE (17.3%) and E (15.5%), but the percentage of S swell (12.5%) remains respectable. The major change is in the wind: the ideal offshore percentage drops to 28%, and the onshore N to NE flow begins to strengthen again, now comprising over 30% of wind observations. Spring storms can still provide clean cold-front passages with strong SW to SSW winds, but these are interspersed with longer periods of northeasterly sea breezes. The quality is more variable than winter, but the good days can still be very good, especially on longer period groundswells with light offshore winds. Patience is required.

Average Spot conditions at Stoney Beach in September

Swell history for September

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for September

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Stoney Beach during September. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Stoney Beach for your next trip in September.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Stoney Beach for September. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Stoney Beach.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size