Tocones - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May, June, September, October)

At Tocones, the surf is a fickle affair. The beach faces due north, yet the swell window is dominated by easterly and east-southeasterly swells, which are generally weak and short-period. The best chance for rideable waves coincides with the months when offshore winds from the south to southwest are most frequent. Late spring and early fall offer the highest percentage of ideal wind conditions, with May and June leading the pack at 44-46% offshore. This is when a light southerly breeze can groom the predominantly small, crumbly east swell into something marginally fun. Still, don't expect any pumping north swells here — the North Atlantic storms that light up other breaks rarely send their energy directly to this coastline. The combination of small swell and fickle wind means that even in the best months, you'll be hunting for the right window.

Fair Surf Season (April, July, August, November)

During these months, the offshore wind frequency drops to between 25% and 34%. The swell remains small and easterly, but with slightly more consistency in summer due to tropical activity in the Atlantic. July and August see a uptick in easterly trade winds, which actually blow onshore and add chop, making conditions less appealing. April and November can see transitions between seasons, with occasional stronger cold fronts bringing shifts in wind direction and perhaps a pulse of longer-period swell from the east or southeast. However, the predominant conditions are still small and sloppy.

Low Surf Season (December, January, February, March)

Winter is the toughest time at Tocones. Offshore winds are rarest, with ideal conditions only 22-29% of the time. The prevailing winds shift more northerly, blowing directly onshore and rendering the already marginal easterly swell into a choppy, messy affair. The North Atlantic is active, but the storm tracks steer north swells away from this north-facing pocket. Instead, the region sees a dominance of east-northeast winds that kill wave quality. The few days when a high-pressure system settles over the coast and brings a southerly breeze can yield the odd clean session, but these are few and far between. Most days, it's best left to the windsurfers or kiteboarders, or to find another spot.

August: Late Summer Slump

August continues the summer pattern with 29% ideal wind. The average swell height is 0.8m and period 5.9s. Swell from the east (43.8%) and east-southeast (48.7%) still dominate, but some southeast (5.2%) and even south (0.2%) components appear, hinting at distant hurricanes. Wind is predominantly east (46.9%) and east-northeast (15.2%) at moderate speeds. The offshore wind percentage improves slightly from July, mostly due to a few more occasions of light southerly flow. However, the Atlantic hurricane season begins to ramp up, offering the potential for longer-period, larger swells from the southeast or south. These are rare but can produce the only real excitement of the year. When a hurricane track keeps the swell alive but the wind stays favorable (light or offshore), Tocones can briefly turn on with shoulder-high, lined-up waves. But in general, August is still a small-wave, onshore-dominated month.