Tocones - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May, June, September, October)

At Tocones, the surf is a fickle affair. The beach faces due north, yet the swell window is dominated by easterly and east-southeasterly swells, which are generally weak and short-period. The best chance for rideable waves coincides with the months when offshore winds from the south to southwest are most frequent. Late spring and early fall offer the highest percentage of ideal wind conditions, with May and June leading the pack at 44-46% offshore. This is when a light southerly breeze can groom the predominantly small, crumbly east swell into something marginally fun. Still, don't expect any pumping north swells here — the North Atlantic storms that light up other breaks rarely send their energy directly to this coastline. The combination of small swell and fickle wind means that even in the best months, you'll be hunting for the right window.

Fair Surf Season (April, July, August, November)

During these months, the offshore wind frequency drops to between 25% and 34%. The swell remains small and easterly, but with slightly more consistency in summer due to tropical activity in the Atlantic. July and August see a uptick in easterly trade winds, which actually blow onshore and add chop, making conditions less appealing. April and November can see transitions between seasons, with occasional stronger cold fronts bringing shifts in wind direction and perhaps a pulse of longer-period swell from the east or southeast. However, the predominant conditions are still small and sloppy.

Low Surf Season (December, January, February, March)

Winter is the toughest time at Tocones. Offshore winds are rarest, with ideal conditions only 22-29% of the time. The prevailing winds shift more northerly, blowing directly onshore and rendering the already marginal easterly swell into a choppy, messy affair. The North Atlantic is active, but the storm tracks steer north swells away from this north-facing pocket. Instead, the region sees a dominance of east-northeast winds that kill wave quality. The few days when a high-pressure system settles over the coast and brings a southerly breeze can yield the odd clean session, but these are few and far between. Most days, it's best left to the windsurfers or kiteboarders, or to find another spot.

July: Trade Wind Slop

July sees a significant drop in ideal wind to 25%, making it a challenging month. The average swell height is 0.9m and period 6.0s. Swell direction is split between east (45.0%) and east-southeast (53.5%). The wind becomes overwhelmingly dominated by east (55.2%) and east-northeast (14.6%), often blowing at 10-20kph (39.7%) and 20-30kph (14.9%). These are the classic trade winds that set in with the strengthening North Atlantic subtropical high. The wind is onshore, creating choppy, bumpy surf. The chances of a true offshore wind from the south are virtually zero (less than 0.1%). The swell remains small, but on the few occasions when a tropical wave passes to the south, a longer-period southeast swell can sneak through. However, the onshore wind usually destroys any quality. July is a month for early mornings before the wind picks up, or for finding a different hobby.