Tocones - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May, June, September, October)

At Tocones, the surf is a fickle affair. The beach faces due north, yet the swell window is dominated by easterly and east-southeasterly swells, which are generally weak and short-period. The best chance for rideable waves coincides with the months when offshore winds from the south to southwest are most frequent. Late spring and early fall offer the highest percentage of ideal wind conditions, with May and June leading the pack at 44-46% offshore. This is when a light southerly breeze can groom the predominantly small, crumbly east swell into something marginally fun. Still, don't expect any pumping north swells here — the North Atlantic storms that light up other breaks rarely send their energy directly to this coastline. The combination of small swell and fickle wind means that even in the best months, you'll be hunting for the right window.

Fair Surf Season (April, July, August, November)

During these months, the offshore wind frequency drops to between 25% and 34%. The swell remains small and easterly, but with slightly more consistency in summer due to tropical activity in the Atlantic. July and August see a uptick in easterly trade winds, which actually blow onshore and add chop, making conditions less appealing. April and November can see transitions between seasons, with occasional stronger cold fronts bringing shifts in wind direction and perhaps a pulse of longer-period swell from the east or southeast. However, the predominant conditions are still small and sloppy.

Low Surf Season (December, January, February, March)

Winter is the toughest time at Tocones. Offshore winds are rarest, with ideal conditions only 22-29% of the time. The prevailing winds shift more northerly, blowing directly onshore and rendering the already marginal easterly swell into a choppy, messy affair. The North Atlantic is active, but the storm tracks steer north swells away from this north-facing pocket. Instead, the region sees a dominance of east-northeast winds that kill wave quality. The few days when a high-pressure system settles over the coast and brings a southerly breeze can yield the odd clean session, but these are few and far between. Most days, it's best left to the windsurfers or kiteboarders, or to find another spot.

February: Frozen Patterns

February offers little change from January. The average swell height remains at 0.9m with a period of 6.2s. Swell direction is nearly identical: 44.7% from the east and 42.4% from the east-southeast. The wind is ideal slightly more often at 27%, but still dominated by east (36%) and east-northeast (19%). The pattern of high pressure to the north and troughs to the south keeps the flow onshore. Occasional cold fronts can bring a southerly wind shift, but these are usually accompanied by a brief increase in wind speed that makes the surf messy. The south to southwest offshore winds remain very rare, making up only about 1% of the total. Overall, february is a month for patience, not performance.