Troncones - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - February)

This is Troncones’ sweet spot. As the North Pacific winter pattern settles in, the trade wind inversion weakens, allowing frequent offshore breezes from the N-NE quadrant. Swell heights average a solid 1.2-1.3m with long-period groundswell (13-14s) sourced from distant Southern Ocean storms and the occasional North Pacific fetch that wraps into the SSW shore. The result? Powerful, clean lines that peel down the beach. December and January peak with over 50% ideal wind, making for consistent, rippable waves.

Fair Surf Season (March, April, October)

Transition months bring a trade-off. In March and October, you still get reliable pulses of SSW-SW swell, but the wind becomes a gamble. Offshore mornings are common, but afternoons see increasing onshore flow from the S-SW. April sees the swell ramp up (1.4m average) and periods lengthen, but ideal wind drops to 32% – meaning you’ll need to pick your windows carefully. These months are worth chasing if you time the morning offshore window or a post-frontal shift.

Low Surf Season (May - September)

The summer doldrums and hurricane season bring the largest swell of the year (1.5-1.7m average) with plenty of punch, but the wind is persistently onshore from the S-SW over 60% of the time. Dominant wind directions (SW, WSW) destroy the wave shape, making for choppy, bumpy conditions. While you might score a clean morning if a tropical storm passes far to the south and creates a window of offshore flow, most days are ruled by textured, subpar surf. The occasional hurricane swell can deliver XXL waves, but only for the brave and experienced – and only if the wind cooperates.

September: Hurricane Swell Season

September brings the largest average swell of the year at 1.7m, period 13.0s. Ideal wind is 36%. Swell directions broaden: SSW (58.9%), S (19.6%), SW (14.0%), and even some SSE (2.0%). This is prime hurricane swell territory. Onshore winds from SE (14.2%) and SSE (9.5%) increase, but offshore N-NE remains at about 18%. The potential for XXL waves exists, but the wind is often the enemy. You need a tropical storm to track favorably or a cold front to clean things up. When it hits, it’s pumping.