Cave Rock • Statistics for October

October: Spring Slump

October marks the return of the summer low season at Cave Rock. The average swell height still manages 1.8m (5.9ft), but the period falls to 9.2s and the ideal wind frequency plummets to 19%. The wind rose is dominated by NE (22.6%), NNE (14.2%) and SSW (19.7%), with very little western quadrant flow (W 0.8%, WNW 0.5%, NW 0.6%, NNW 1.8%). The swell direction is also less favourable - E (15.9%), ESE (13.8%), SE (15.4%), SSE (17.1%) and S (15.9%) are all in similar proportions, indicating a mix of trade wind swell and short-period groundswell, but none of it clean enough to overcome the onshore winds. The 1.5-2m and 2-2.5m bands are still present, but the lack of quality means most days are messy and bulged. Water temp warms to 21.9°C, air to 20.9°C, and rainfall ramps up to 3.31mm/day-a sign of the rainy spring transition. Unless a strong cold front dips north and brings a S-SSW swell with post-frontal west winds, October is a month to check the forecast more than the surf.