Lances Right - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - March)

During the heart of the Indonesian wet season, the monsoon shifts to a westerly pattern, delivering the most consistent offshore winds for Lances Right. With the prevailing winds blowing from the southwest to west-northwest, these months offer the cleanest conditions for this east-northeast facing reef. Swell heights average a fun-sized 0.8-0.9m, and periods climb into the 10-11.5s range, providing punchy, rideable waves. The wind is ideal for surfing 50-63% of the time, making this the prime window for scoring groomed, peeling lefts. While the dominant swell direction is from the south-southwest to west, wrap-around energy from the Indian Ocean still manages to reach the break, delivering waves that are far from optimal but often very surfable.

Fair Surf Season (April & October)

As the monsoon transitions, both April and October bring a mix of conditions. Offshore winds are still frequent (58% and 37% ideal, respectively), but the wind patterns become more fickle. Swell heights hold steady around 0.8-0.9m, and periods lengthen further (12.7s in April, 12.6s in October) due to distant storm activity across the Southern Ocean. These months can serve up powerful, long-period swell that wraps into the bay, but the increased variability in wind direction often leads to a chop factor. When the stars align with a clean westerly breeze, the surf can be well worth the wait.

Low Surf Season (May - September)

The southeast trade winds dominate during the dry season, bringing persistent onshore flow from the east-northeast to southeast – the exact directions that ruin wave quality at Lances Right. Ideal wind percentages plummet to 22-41%, with the worst months being July, August, and September. Swell from the south-southwest is abundant, and the period stays long (13.4-13.9s), so there is plenty of power in the water. However, without a clean offshore wind, the waves become lumpy, bumpy, and difficult to ride. Occasional windows of westerly wind can salvage a session, but expect mostly choppy, frustrating conditions. This is the time to explore other breaks or plan a trip to more sheltered corners.

February: Consistency Carries On

Similar to January, February delivers reliable offshore winds, with 63% ideal wind frequency. The wind rose remains dominated by NW and WNW, ensuring a groomed, glassy surface. Swell direction is again locked in from the south-southwest to west-southwest, with a significant 44.3% from the SW. Average height holds at 0.8m, but the wave period increases slightly to 10.4s, adding a touch more power. Wave heights cluster in the 0.5-1m range (40.7% of SW swell), making for consistent, fun-sized lefts. The quality is dependable, but don't expect any XXL days – this is a month for logging smooth turns on manageable waves.