Lances Right - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - March)

During the heart of the Indonesian wet season, the monsoon shifts to a westerly pattern, delivering the most consistent offshore winds for Lances Right. With the prevailing winds blowing from the southwest to west-northwest, these months offer the cleanest conditions for this east-northeast facing reef. Swell heights average a fun-sized 0.8-0.9m, and periods climb into the 10-11.5s range, providing punchy, rideable waves. The wind is ideal for surfing 50-63% of the time, making this the prime window for scoring groomed, peeling lefts. While the dominant swell direction is from the south-southwest to west, wrap-around energy from the Indian Ocean still manages to reach the break, delivering waves that are far from optimal but often very surfable.

Fair Surf Season (April & October)

As the monsoon transitions, both April and October bring a mix of conditions. Offshore winds are still frequent (58% and 37% ideal, respectively), but the wind patterns become more fickle. Swell heights hold steady around 0.8-0.9m, and periods lengthen further (12.7s in April, 12.6s in October) due to distant storm activity across the Southern Ocean. These months can serve up powerful, long-period swell that wraps into the bay, but the increased variability in wind direction often leads to a chop factor. When the stars align with a clean westerly breeze, the surf can be well worth the wait.

Low Surf Season (May - September)

The southeast trade winds dominate during the dry season, bringing persistent onshore flow from the east-northeast to southeast – the exact directions that ruin wave quality at Lances Right. Ideal wind percentages plummet to 22-41%, with the worst months being July, August, and September. Swell from the south-southwest is abundant, and the period stays long (13.4-13.9s), so there is plenty of power in the water. However, without a clean offshore wind, the waves become lumpy, bumpy, and difficult to ride. Occasional windows of westerly wind can salvage a session, but expect mostly choppy, frustrating conditions. This is the time to explore other breaks or plan a trip to more sheltered corners.

May: Trade Winds Take Hold

May sees a significant drop in ideal wind conditions to just 41%. The trade winds start to establish, with SE and ESE winds increasing (14.5% and 9.5%), blowing directly onshore and ruining the wave shape. Swell period remains high at 13.4s, and the average swell height climbs to 0.9m, with more waves breaking in the 1-1.5m range (11.4% from SSW). The dominant swell direction is still SSW (60.5%), and there is an increase in S swell (11.3%). The trade wind chop quickly messes up the face, making the waves bumpy and difficult. Only early morning offshore windows provide rideable conditions, and even then the swell direction is less than ideal.