Lances Right - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (November - March)

During the heart of the Indonesian wet season, the monsoon shifts to a westerly pattern, delivering the most consistent offshore winds for Lances Right. With the prevailing winds blowing from the southwest to west-northwest, these months offer the cleanest conditions for this east-northeast facing reef. Swell heights average a fun-sized 0.8-0.9m, and periods climb into the 10-11.5s range, providing punchy, rideable waves. The wind is ideal for surfing 50-63% of the time, making this the prime window for scoring groomed, peeling lefts. While the dominant swell direction is from the south-southwest to west, wrap-around energy from the Indian Ocean still manages to reach the break, delivering waves that are far from optimal but often very surfable.

Fair Surf Season (April & October)

As the monsoon transitions, both April and October bring a mix of conditions. Offshore winds are still frequent (58% and 37% ideal, respectively), but the wind patterns become more fickle. Swell heights hold steady around 0.8-0.9m, and periods lengthen further (12.7s in April, 12.6s in October) due to distant storm activity across the Southern Ocean. These months can serve up powerful, long-period swell that wraps into the bay, but the increased variability in wind direction often leads to a chop factor. When the stars align with a clean westerly breeze, the surf can be well worth the wait.

Low Surf Season (May - September)

The southeast trade winds dominate during the dry season, bringing persistent onshore flow from the east-northeast to southeast – the exact directions that ruin wave quality at Lances Right. Ideal wind percentages plummet to 22-41%, with the worst months being July, August, and September. Swell from the south-southwest is abundant, and the period stays long (13.4-13.9s), so there is plenty of power in the water. However, without a clean offshore wind, the waves become lumpy, bumpy, and difficult to ride. Occasional windows of westerly wind can salvage a session, but expect mostly choppy, frustrating conditions. This is the time to explore other breaks or plan a trip to more sheltered corners.

March: Long Periods Arrive

March sees the start of a shift toward longer swell periods, averaging 11.5s, which translates to more powerful, walled-up waves. The wind remains favorable for 59% of the time, with NW winds still strong but WNW picking up. Swell direction is heavily weighted toward SSW (41.6%) and SW (34.3%), with an average height of 0.8m. The bigger sets (1-1.5m) begin to edge up from the WSW. The longer period allows even the modest heights to offer a solid, punchy ride. Despite the less-than-optimal swell direction, the combination of offshore wind and increasing period makes March a quality month for surf.