Merimbula Bar - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Winter along the NSW South Coast fires up the Merimbula Bar consistently. As the Pacific storm track intensifies, powerful S and SSW groundswells push into the bay with average periods climbing into the 9s range. The Tasman Sea low-pressure systems align perfectly with the coastline, and the offshore wind windows from the NW and NNW become frequent and reliable – up to 44% of the time in July. This is when the bar truly comes alive: clean, hollow peaks breaking over the sandbanks, with wave heights often in the 1.5–2.5 m ‘pumping’ range. If you time it with a solid 10-second-plus long-period pulse, you’ll find some of the most rippable waves of the year.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

These shoulder months offer a blend of building or fading winter energy. April sees the tail end of autumn with increasing S/SSW swell and a 36% chance of offshore winds – a good transition window with average periods around 9.1 s. September holds onto winter’s momentum: 33% ideal wind and a mix of S/SSW and ENE/NE swells. Conditions can be inconsistent but deliver excellent sessions when a strong low passes through. Expect punchy, rideable waves in the 1–1.5 m ‘fun’ range, with occasional pumping sets as the season shifts.

Low Surf Season (October - March)

Spring and summer bring a frustrating combination for Merimbula Bar. The dominant wind regime shifts to NE and NNE onshore breezes that rip the surface apart, and the ideal offshore window from the NW/NNW drops below 30% (as low as 22% in January). Swell directions become dominated by the east quadrant (NE, ENE, E) – which are shadowed or wrap weakly around the headlands, rarely producing the clean, lined-up waves the bar is known for. Wave periods drop to 8 s or less, making for chop and weak, short-period lines. While there can be the occasional fun groveler on a tiny SSE groundswell, the overall quality is poor. Most of the swell is small to medium (0.5–1.5 m) and often wind-affected. For consistent, high-quality surf, focus on the winter months.

January: Summer Doldrums

January is the heart of the Australian summer, and the surf quality at Merimbula Bar hits an annual low. The average swell height sits at 1.7 m, but the period is a mediocre 8.1 s – mostly short-period windswell. Swell direction is overwhelmingly from the east quadrant: NE (19.6%), ENE (14.6%), and E (11.3%) make up nearly half the total. These directions are not optimal for the bar, which faces SSE. Only about 26% of the swell comes from the favorable SE/SSE/S/SSW quadrants. The wind tells an ugly story: ideal offshore directions (N, NNE, NW, NNW) account for just over 30% of the observations, with strong onshore NE, NNE, and S winds dominating. The result is often choppy, messy conditions with 0.5–1.5 m waves and short-period slop. If you’re desperate for a wave, grab a groveler and hope for an early morning glass-off, but don’t expect quality.