Merimbula Bar - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Winter along the NSW South Coast fires up the Merimbula Bar consistently. As the Pacific storm track intensifies, powerful S and SSW groundswells push into the bay with average periods climbing into the 9s range. The Tasman Sea low-pressure systems align perfectly with the coastline, and the offshore wind windows from the NW and NNW become frequent and reliable – up to 44% of the time in July. This is when the bar truly comes alive: clean, hollow peaks breaking over the sandbanks, with wave heights often in the 1.5–2.5 m ‘pumping’ range. If you time it with a solid 10-second-plus long-period pulse, you’ll find some of the most rippable waves of the year.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

These shoulder months offer a blend of building or fading winter energy. April sees the tail end of autumn with increasing S/SSW swell and a 36% chance of offshore winds – a good transition window with average periods around 9.1 s. September holds onto winter’s momentum: 33% ideal wind and a mix of S/SSW and ENE/NE swells. Conditions can be inconsistent but deliver excellent sessions when a strong low passes through. Expect punchy, rideable waves in the 1–1.5 m ‘fun’ range, with occasional pumping sets as the season shifts.

Low Surf Season (October - March)

Spring and summer bring a frustrating combination for Merimbula Bar. The dominant wind regime shifts to NE and NNE onshore breezes that rip the surface apart, and the ideal offshore window from the NW/NNW drops below 30% (as low as 22% in January). Swell directions become dominated by the east quadrant (NE, ENE, E) – which are shadowed or wrap weakly around the headlands, rarely producing the clean, lined-up waves the bar is known for. Wave periods drop to 8 s or less, making for chop and weak, short-period lines. While there can be the occasional fun groveler on a tiny SSE groundswell, the overall quality is poor. Most of the swell is small to medium (0.5–1.5 m) and often wind-affected. For consistent, high-quality surf, focus on the winter months.

May: Winter Swell Machine Engages

May is the start of the prime surf season. The average swell height dips slightly to 1.6 m, but the period remains strong at 9.3 s, indicating more consistent, longer-period swells. The distribution of swell directions becomes heavily weighted toward the southern quadrants: S (12.3%), SSW (12.1%), SSE (11.9%), and SE (11.1%) make up over 47% of the total. This is exactly what the bar needs. Wind conditions are excellent: ideal offshore wind reaches 40% of the time, with NW and NNW winds becoming dominant off the land (NW 5.7%, NNW 6.3%, and W 6.6% all favor clean conditions). The onshore breeze is less frequent, with SSW only at 10.2% and SW at 17.2% – the latter being a cross-shore that can still work. Wave heights are mostly in the 1–2 m range, but with periods in the 9-10 s, these are punchy, fun waves. Occasional larger pulses from the Southern Ocean bring 2.5 m+ surf with epic long periods. May consistently delivers quality sessions on the bar – add it to your calendar.