Merimbula Bar - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Winter along the NSW South Coast fires up the Merimbula Bar consistently. As the Pacific storm track intensifies, powerful S and SSW groundswells push into the bay with average periods climbing into the 9s range. The Tasman Sea low-pressure systems align perfectly with the coastline, and the offshore wind windows from the NW and NNW become frequent and reliable – up to 44% of the time in July. This is when the bar truly comes alive: clean, hollow peaks breaking over the sandbanks, with wave heights often in the 1.5–2.5 m ‘pumping’ range. If you time it with a solid 10-second-plus long-period pulse, you’ll find some of the most rippable waves of the year.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

These shoulder months offer a blend of building or fading winter energy. April sees the tail end of autumn with increasing S/SSW swell and a 36% chance of offshore winds – a good transition window with average periods around 9.1 s. September holds onto winter’s momentum: 33% ideal wind and a mix of S/SSW and ENE/NE swells. Conditions can be inconsistent but deliver excellent sessions when a strong low passes through. Expect punchy, rideable waves in the 1–1.5 m ‘fun’ range, with occasional pumping sets as the season shifts.

Low Surf Season (October - March)

Spring and summer bring a frustrating combination for Merimbula Bar. The dominant wind regime shifts to NE and NNE onshore breezes that rip the surface apart, and the ideal offshore window from the NW/NNW drops below 30% (as low as 22% in January). Swell directions become dominated by the east quadrant (NE, ENE, E) – which are shadowed or wrap weakly around the headlands, rarely producing the clean, lined-up waves the bar is known for. Wave periods drop to 8 s or less, making for chop and weak, short-period lines. While there can be the occasional fun groveler on a tiny SSE groundswell, the overall quality is poor. Most of the swell is small to medium (0.5–1.5 m) and often wind-affected. For consistent, high-quality surf, focus on the winter months.

November: Summer’s Prelude

November is a month to avoid if you’re chasing quality surf at Merimbula Bar. The average swell height is 1.6 m with a low period of 8.0 s – the lowest average period of the year, indicating primarily short-period, locally generated windswell. Swell directions are overwhelmingly from the east: NE (18.2%), ENE (12.0%), and E (8.2%) combine for 38.4% of the total, while favorable S/SSW/SE directions total only about 40% but are often short-period. The wind ideal percentage is a meager 24%, and the dominant wind directions are NNE (16.3%) and SSW (13.7%) – both onshore or cross-onshore for the bar. Offshore NW/NNW winds are rare (1.5% and 2.7%). Wave heights frequently fall in the 1–1.5 m range, which is small and groveling. When swell does come from the south, it’s typically accompanied by strong onshore winds, resulting in messy, blown-out conditions. November is the month to take a break, work on your equipment, and wait for the next winter.