Merimbula Bar - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (May - August)

Winter along the NSW South Coast fires up the Merimbula Bar consistently. As the Pacific storm track intensifies, powerful S and SSW groundswells push into the bay with average periods climbing into the 9s range. The Tasman Sea low-pressure systems align perfectly with the coastline, and the offshore wind windows from the NW and NNW become frequent and reliable – up to 44% of the time in July. This is when the bar truly comes alive: clean, hollow peaks breaking over the sandbanks, with wave heights often in the 1.5–2.5 m ‘pumping’ range. If you time it with a solid 10-second-plus long-period pulse, you’ll find some of the most rippable waves of the year.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

These shoulder months offer a blend of building or fading winter energy. April sees the tail end of autumn with increasing S/SSW swell and a 36% chance of offshore winds – a good transition window with average periods around 9.1 s. September holds onto winter’s momentum: 33% ideal wind and a mix of S/SSW and ENE/NE swells. Conditions can be inconsistent but deliver excellent sessions when a strong low passes through. Expect punchy, rideable waves in the 1–1.5 m ‘fun’ range, with occasional pumping sets as the season shifts.

Low Surf Season (October - March)

Spring and summer bring a frustrating combination for Merimbula Bar. The dominant wind regime shifts to NE and NNE onshore breezes that rip the surface apart, and the ideal offshore window from the NW/NNW drops below 30% (as low as 22% in January). Swell directions become dominated by the east quadrant (NE, ENE, E) – which are shadowed or wrap weakly around the headlands, rarely producing the clean, lined-up waves the bar is known for. Wave periods drop to 8 s or less, making for chop and weak, short-period lines. While there can be the occasional fun groveler on a tiny SSE groundswell, the overall quality is poor. Most of the swell is small to medium (0.5–1.5 m) and often wind-affected. For consistent, high-quality surf, focus on the winter months.

October: Spring Onshore Blues

October sees a noticeable decline in surf quality as spring strengthens. The average swell height is 1.7 m, but the period drops to 8.3 s – a return to shorter-period windswell. Swell directions shift back toward the east: NE (14.3%), ENE (9.7%), and E (7.3%) dominate the northern half of the compass, while favorable SW/SSW/S/SE swells still occur but with less consistency. The wind ideal percentage falls to 28%, with offshore NNW/NW winds only 4.3% and 3.1% respectively. The onshore pattern is dominated by NNE (13.5%), SSW (13.0%), and SW (11.7%) – the latter two are often strong and ruin any southern swell. Wave heights are mostly in the 1–2 m range, but short-period and wind-affected. There are still occasional good days when a late-season cold front aligns with a high-pressure system to produce a clean S swell with a morning NW breeze. But these are the exception. For most of October, you’ll be dealing with chop and weak lines. Best to save your energy for the winter months.