Surf forecastSpot statisticsHistorical report

Sao Conrado seasonal overview

Best Surf Season (May - August)

During the Southern Hemisphere winter, Sao Conrado comes alive with consistent, long-period swell from the South Atlantic. The combination of strong extratropical storms roaring through the 'Roaring Forties' sends powerful S and SSE groundswells up the coast, producing average wave heights of 1.4 to 1.5m with periods exceeding 10 seconds. Coupled with the highest percentages of offshore wind from the north quadrant (often over 50% ideal conditions), this is when the beach truly fires. Expect clean, powerful lines wrapping into the bay, offering rippable walls and occasional pumping sets.

Fair Surf Season (March - April, September - October)

The shoulder seasons offer a mixed bag. As the seasons transition, the South Atlantic low-pressure tracks become less consistent. March and April still see decent swell, often with longer periods (10+ seconds), but the wind quality becomes more variable with an increase in easterly trade winds. September and October show a decline in ideal wind percentages (to around 37-42%), but remaining swell energy from winter storms can still produce fun, good-sized waves, especially when a strong cold front aligns with clean northwesterly winds.

Low Surf Season (November - February)

The Brazilian summer brings smaller, less consistent surf to Sao Conrado. Average wave heights drop to around 1.1-1.3m with shorter periods (9-10 seconds) as the South Pacific storm track weakens. Dominant ESE to SE winds often create bumpy, onshore conditions, though occasional pulses of S swell can sneak in. The mornings are your best bet, as light offshore breezes from the interior can temporarily groom the waves before the afternoon sea breeze kicks in. It's groveling territory, but still fun for a longboard or a high-performance shortboard when a summer swell aligns.

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Conditions at Sao Conrado in October

October: Spring Transition

October represents the spring transition with smaller swell and less consistent conditions. Average wave heights drop to 1.3m with a period of 10 seconds. The dominant swell still comes from the SSE and S, but the wind statistics show the lowest ideal percentage of the year at 37%. The trades from the east are firmly established, and afternoon sea breezes from the south often disrupt the wave quality. It's a month for seeking out the early morning windows when a light north wind may briefly align with the fading winter swell to produce clean, fun-sized waves.

Average Spot conditions at Sao Conrado in October

Swell history for October

0 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 2.5
> 2.5 m

Wind history for October

0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
> 50 km/h

Swell quality

Analyze the groundswell consistency at Sao Conrado during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Sao Conrado for your next trip in October.

Ground swell

Ground swell by size

Wind conditions

Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Sao Conrado for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Sao Conrado.

Swell with good wind

Swell with good wind by size