Careneros - surf spot statistics

Careneros in Panama is primarily a windswell-dominated spot, with very little ground swell influence throughout the year. The best months for surfers are typically from December through March, when swell consistency and wind conditions are most favorable. During these months, windswell makes up 97-98% of the waves, with negligible ground swell, and mean swell sizes range between 1.3m and 1.5m. Wind conditions are relatively good, with favorable winds occurring 56-60% of the time, though there’s still a notable chance of poor wind days, especially in March when offshore winds are slightly more frequent. Swell size begins to drop in April, averaging 1.1m, and wind reliability decreases, making early-year months more consistent. May through November sees a decline in quality, with September and October being particularly weak—swell size drops to 0.7m-0.8m, and wind conditions worsen significantly, with bad winds occurring over 50-63% of the time. July stands out as a minor exception in the mid-year slump, with a small swell uptick (1.4m) and slightly improved winds. Overall, the ideal window is December to March, offering the most reliable size and better wind odds, though surfers should be prepared for some onshore interference, given that bad winds still occur 40-44% of the time even in peak months. Late-season surf (September-November) is generally poor due to weak swells and unfavorable winds.

In May, Careneros, Panama, offers generally manageable surf conditions with an average swell height of 1.0m and a decent period of 7.8s, providing enough energy for clean, rideable waves. The swell predominantly comes from the ENE (28.39% of waves in the 0.5-1m range) and NE (17.03% in 0.5-1m, 19.67% in 1-1.5m), ensuring consistent, medium-sized waves with occasional larger sets up to 2.5m when ENE swells peak. Wind conditions are favorable 49% of the time, with lighter winds (0-20kph) from the N to NW directions (WNW and NW being dominant at 11.79% and 7.26% in 10-20kph, respectively), keeping surface chop minimal. However, stronger WNW/NW winds occasionally pick up into the 20-30kph range, potentially disrupting conditions. For surfers, this translates to mostly clean to slightly textured waves, best suited for intermediate riders—smaller days are forgiving, while larger ENE/NE swells offer more power. Spot selection and timing around wind shifts will maximize sessions.