Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

In December, Kincardine offers variable but occasionally surfable conditions with an average swell height of 1.5m and a moderate period of 7.1s, suggesting generally weak to fair wave power. The most consistent swells arrive from the NNW direction, which contributes significantly to rideable waves, particularly in the 1-2.5m range. WNW and NW swells also provide decent opportunities, with a notable percentage of waves in the 1.5-2.5m range. However, wind conditions are often challenging, with only 10% of winds being ideal for surfing. Offshore winds (from land) are rare; instead, prevailing westerlies (W, WSW, WNW) frequently bring cross-shore or onshore gusts, especially in the 20-50kph range, which can create choppy or blown-out conditions. Stronger winds from the WNW and NW are particularly disruptive. Surfers should target days when NNW swells coincide with lighter winds, typically early mornings when winds are calmer. While larger swells do occur (over 2.5m), they’re infrequent (under 1% of the time) and may be marred by wind. Expect cold water and air temps, requiring proper gear. Patience is key—this spot works best on select days with clean wind/swell alignment.