Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

In July, Kincardine offers relatively small but surfable conditions, with an average swell height of 0.6m and a moderate period of 7.0s. The dominant swell directions are from the SE and SSE, contributing to the majority of rideable waves in the 0.5-1.5m range. However, wave quality is inconsistent, as larger swells (over 1.5m) are rare and make up less than 1% of occurrences. Wind conditions are less favorable, with only 9% of the time providing ideal offshore or light cross-shore winds for surfing. The prevailing winds come from the SW to W, often blowing at 10-30kph, which can create choppy or marginal conditions. Stronger winds (over 30kph) are more frequent from the S to SSW, further degrading wave quality. While the spot can work on smaller days with SE swell and lighter winds, surfers should temper expectations—July tends to deliver mostly knee-high to waist-high waves with occasional chest-high sets, best suited for longboards or relaxed sessions. Consistent clean conditions are uncommon.