Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

March at this surf spot tends to offer rideable but inconsistent conditions, with an average swell height of 1.0m and a period of 6.6s—suggesting softer, less powerful waves. The most dominant swell directions come from the ESE, SSE, and NNW, with a notable portion of waves in the 0.5–1.5m range, making for manageable surf but rarely challenging. However, larger swells (1.5m+) are relatively infrequent, limiting opportunities for advanced surfers seeking size. Wind conditions are often problematic, with only 8% of days providing ideal offshore winds. Onshore winds from the W, WNW, and NW directions are common, frequently blowing at 20–40kph, which can degrade wave quality. Stronger winds (30–50kph) are not unusual, further reducing clean surf days. Overall, March delivers occasional fun sessions for beginners and intermediates, but steady conditions for high-performance surfing are rare due to wind interference and modest swell energy.