Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

October at Kincardine offers surfable conditions, though with some variability. The average swell height is 1.2m with a 7.0s period, providing decent energy for the size. Most swells come from the SSE to NW directions, with the largest contributions from SE (8.18% at 0.5-1m) and NNW (5.08% at 0.5-1m, plus solid contributions in the 1-2.5m range). The best waves tend to arrive from the SSE to NW quadrant, where swells between 1-2.5m are most frequent. However, wind conditions are often less than ideal—only 11% of the time is the wind truly surf-friendly, as moderate to strong winds are common, especially from the SW to NW (20-50kph range). Offshore or cross-offshore winds are rare, with onshore or sideshore winds dominating. Surfers should watch for days when NW swells combine with lighter winds for the cleanest conditions, but expect occasional wind chop and inconsistency. Overall, October delivers workable waves for experienced surfers, though patience and flexibility are key due to variable winds.