Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

November at this surf spot offers variable but occasionally rideable conditions. The average swell height is 1.3m with a 7.0s period, suggesting predominantly weaker, shorter-period waves that lack significant power. The most consistent swell directions come from the ESE, SE, and NNW, contributing to the majority of waves in the 0.5–2.5m range, though larger sets (2.5m+) are rare. WNW and NW swells also bring slightly more energy, occasionally producing punchier waves in the 1.5–2.5m range. Wind conditions are challenging, with only 11% of days offering ideal offshore or light cross-shore winds—typically from the ENE to ESE directions. Stronger onshore winds (SW to W) are frequent, creating choppy or blown-out conditions, especially when winds exceed 20kph. For advanced surfers, the best windows are likely during NNW swells paired with ENE winds, offering the cleanest shoulders. However, expect mostly small to moderate surf with limited quality due to wind interference and inconsistent swell energy.