Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Best Surf Season (October – March)

The Lake Huron machine cranks into high gear from October through March, delivering the largest and most powerful swell of the year. Average wave heights climb to 1.0–1.3 m with periods stretching to 5 seconds or more, thanks to strong extratropical systems tracking across the continent. However, the dominant wind directions during these months—WSW, W, WNW, and NW—are directly onshore and often blow hard, ruining surface conditions. The wind is ideal (offshore from ENE/E/ESE/SE) only 2–5% of the time, so clean sessions are fleeting. Still, when a cold front clears the sky and those east-northeast breezes kick in, the west-facing beach can light up with punchy, long-period waves. Patience and a keen eye on the wind forecast are essential, but the rewards are real.

Fair Surf Season (April & September)

April and September represent the bookends of the active storm track. Swell heights average 0.7–0.8 m with periods around 4 seconds, offering rideable but modest surf. Offshore wind percentages nudge up to 4–5%, and the wind fields become more variable as seasonal transitions weaken the dominant onshore flow. These months are a mixed bag—some days deliver clean, waist-high lines, while others remain flat or choppy. For the dedicated surfer, these are windows of opportunity when the lake is less crowded and the odds of a favorable wind-swell alignment are slightly better.

Low Surf Season (May – August)

Summer settles over Lake Huron from May through August, bringing small, weak surf. Average wave heights dip to 0.5–0.6 m and periods hover around 3.5–3.8 seconds, with the majority of energy arriving from the north-northwest—a direction that produces minimal swell at this west-facing beach. Onshore winds from the southwest and south dominate, and though offshore breezes occur occasionally (1–2% of the time), they rarely align with enough swell to create quality waves. This is strictly flat-spell territory; only the most optimistic loggers and foilers will find joy, and even then, conditions are usually groveling at best.

November: Consistent Power, Fickle Wind

November continues the winter storm train with an average swell height of 1.2 m and period of 5.0 seconds. Swell from NW (10.3%) and W (7.4%) remains strong, and the period is long enough to produce real power. Offshore wind is ideal 4% of the time. The wind rose is heavily loaded with onshore directions: S (9.9%), SSW (10.2%), SW (8.4%), WSW (8.8%), and W (7.9%) combine to blow out many sessions. Yet, the increased storm frequency means more swell events, and each frontal passage can temporarily deliver offshore east-northeast winds. The water is cold, the air is raw, but the waves are consistent. For the hardcore winter surfer, November offers the best trade-off between size and frequency, even if clean conditions remain rare.