Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

May in Kincardine presents relatively small but surfable conditions, with an average swell height of 0.9m and a decent period of 6.8s, offering some potential for clean rides when the wind cooperates. The dominant swell directions are ESE, SE, and SSE, contributing the biggest share of rideable waves—particularly in the 0.5-1.5m range. However, the majority of waves (over 50%) are under 1m, meaning sessions will often be on the softer side, better suited for longboards or high-volume shortboards. Wind conditions are less than ideal, with only 15% of days providing favorable offshore or light cross-shore winds. The most problematic winds come from the S to SW quadrant, which are frequently strong (20-40kph) and onshore, creating choppy or blown-out conditions. NW and WNW winds offer the best chance for cleaner waves, but they’re less common. Expect a mix of small, manageable days with the occasional waist-high+ session when swell direction and wind align—patience and timing will be key.