Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

January at Kincardine offers challenging but occasionally surfable conditions, with an average swell height of 1.3m and a moderate period of 6.8s, suggesting somewhat disorganized but rideable waves. The most favorable swell directions are from the NNW and WNW, which provide the highest frequency of meaningful wave energy (1.5m+) and cleaner shape, while swells from the SE/SSE tend to be smaller and less consistent. Wind conditions are often problematic, with only 8% of the time offering ideal offshore or light cross-shore winds—typically from the NE quadrant. However, strong onshore winds (W-WSW) are prevalent, creating choppy or blown-out surf, particularly at higher speeds (20-50kph+). Expect the best windows when NW swells coincide with NE winds, but overall, this is a winter spot requiring patience and tolerance for cold, windy sessions. Most surfers will find it inconsistent and underpowered unless a strong storm system aligns swell and wind favorably.