Kincardine - surf spot statistics

Kincardine, Canada, is primarily a windswell-dominated spot with occasional ground swell influence, particularly in late summer and fall. The best months for surfing are typically from September through December, when swell consistency and size improve. September stands out with a noticeable increase in ground swell (11%) compared to other months, while October to December see the highest wind swell percentages (80-85%) and minimal no-swell days (7-13%). Swell size also peaks in December with a mean of 1.5m, offering the most substantial waves of the year. However, wind conditions are generally poor year-round, with bad winds (onshore or cross-shore) dominating 85-93% of the time across all months. Late fall (October-November) provides a slightly better balance, with 11% good wind days—still low but marginally better than other periods. Summer (June-August) is the least favorable due to smaller swells (0.6-0.7m) and higher no-swell likelihood. For dedicated surfers, the shoulder seasons (September-early December) are the best bet, despite the challenging winds, as they deliver the most consistent and sizable waves. Winter (December-February) brings bigger swells but worse wind conditions, making sessions rare and highly conditions-dependent. If you can time sessions around the occasional clean wind day in late fall, that’s your best shot at scoring decent waves in Kincardine.

In September, Kincardine offers variable surf conditions with an average swell height of 0.9m and a moderate 7.1s period, suggesting mostly small to mid-sized waves with decent energy. The dominant swell directions are SE (13.39% at 0.5-1m) and SSE (3.38% at 0.5-1m), while larger swells (1.5-2m+) are less frequent but most likely from NNW (2.16%) and NW (1.31%). Wind conditions are often challenging, with only 11% of days providing ideal offshore or light cross-shore winds. The most consistent issue is SW to W winds (peaking at 3.97% SW in 20-30kph range), which are onshore for this break and can create choppy surf. Cleaner sessions are most probable with NNE to ENE winds, though these are less frequent (under 1% each). For advanced surfers, the best windows come during NNW or NW swells paired with NE winds, offering rare but clean, punchy waves. Overall, September is a mixed month—expect mostly small, wind-affected surf with occasional rideable days when wind and swell align.